The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has released its latest Short Range Outlook (SRO) for global steel demand in 2025 and 2026. Global steel demand in 2025 is projected to be flat compared to 2024, reaching about 1,750 million tonnes (Mt). A modest rebound of 1.3% is forecast for 2026, pushing global demand to 1,772 Mt.
Commenting on the outlook, Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chief Economist, Spanish Steel Producers Association (UNESID) and Chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee, said, “despite a considerable escalation of the global trade war and inherent uncertainties, we are cautiously optimistic that global steel demand will bottom out in 2025 and demonstrate moderate growth in 2026. This positive outlook is underpinned by the demonstrated resilience of the global economy, continued strength in public infrastructure investments in most major economies of the world, and the expected ease in financing conditions.
The projected growth in 2026 is driven by a mix of powerful regional trends. We expect to see a slowdown in the decline of steel demand from China, coupled with strong growth in developing economies like India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Critically, we also anticipate the long-awaited return of steel demand growth in Europe.
However, the path forward isn’t without its challenges. First, the global manufacturing sector continues to face a squeeze from elevated production costs and sustained affordability pressures on consumers. Second, escalating trade tensions are having a direct, negative impact on steel demand in economies heavily reliant on the export of steel-intensive goods, such as machinery and automotive components. Finally, geopolitical uncertainties act as a major deterrent, chilling both consumer and investor confidence, and dampening steel demand across key markets.”
We anticipate that China’s steel demand will continue its decline in 2025, falling by approximately 2.0%. This forecast represents a moderation of the downward trend observed since 2021, driven primarily by the ongoing downturn in the housing market. Looking ahead to 2026, the decline is projected to further decelerate to 1.0% as the housing market bottoms out. We believe that the risks to our current China steel demand outlook weigh on the downside. A tougher global trade environment poses a significant downside risk, potentially slowing steel demand from the manufacturing sector. Additionally, lingering financial pressures on local governments could constrain infrastructure investments, further dampening demand.
Steel demand in the developing world excluding China is forecast for robust growth, with a 3.4% increase in 2025 and a 4.7% increase in 2026. This expansion is primarily driven by strong performance in India, and some ASEAN and MENA countries.
Our projections suggest Indian steel demand will continue to charge ahead with around 9% growth in its steel demand over 2025 and 2026, driven by continued growth in all steel using sectors. In 2026, steel demand in India is projected to be almost 75 Mt higher than in 2020.
For nearly a decade, starting in the mid-2010s, steel demand in Africa remained largely flat, hovering around the 35–40 Mt mark. However, a significant shift has been underway since 2023, with clear indicators of a strong resurgence in construction and steel consumption across the continent. Our analysis estimates that over the past three years, Africa’s steel demand has grown by an average of 5.5% per annum, fueled particularly by robust activity in the Northern and Eastern regions. This renewed momentum, which brought Africa’s steel demand to about 41 Mt in 2025, is underpinned by improving macroeconomic fundamentals and governance. For instance, most of Africa’s major economies have recently achieved greater stability, seeing a noticeable reduction in volatility across inflation and exchange rates. Furthermore, several African nations are actively pursuing ambitious economic diversification agendas, supported by key reforms. These developments might be paving the way for a potentially sustained period of steel demand growth in the continent.
We anticipate a relatively strong 5.5% growth in Central and South America’s steel demand this year. This projected expansion is primarily driven by a double-digit rebound in Argentina — recovering from a massive 30%+ decline in 2024 — and solid 5.0% growth in Brazil, where government-supported social housing initiatives continue to bolster construction steel consumption. This forecast of 5.5% growth is expected to push the region’s total steel demand to approximately 50 Mt. However, it is important to note that this level is 2 Mt lower than the consumption recorded back in 2013. This clearly reflects the persistent deindustrialisation trend that has marked the region’s economic trajectory since the early 2000s.
The developed world is forecast to experience a 0.5% decrease in steel demand in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline since 2021. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2026, with projected growth of 1.5% as steel demand in the EU and US is expected to bottom out in 2025 and post modest growth thereafter. Conversely, steel demand in Japan and Korea is projected to remain subdued throughout 2026.
We expect the EU+UK region’s demand to grow 1.3% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. The long-awaited return of steel demand growth in the EU reflects the impact of increased infrastructure and defence spending in the continent in combination with improving macroeconomic conditions such as lower inflation, easing credit conditions, and improvements in real household income.
Steel demand in the US is expected to rebound by 1.8% in 2025 thanks to front-loading of production ahead of increased tariffs and continued growth in infrastructure spending. In 2026, we expect steel demand to grow by 1.8%, aided by pent-up demand in residential construction and private investment, easing financing conditions, and reduced uncertainty. Additional upside could come from the launch of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” stimulus, which may boost multiple sectors.
Source: worldsteel
