worldsteel Short Range Outlook 2014-2015: Global steel use to increase by 2.0 per cent

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Short range outlook for Apparent Steel Use, in Megatonnes (Mt) - 2014/2015 (Source: worldsteel)

Brussels — The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has released its Short Range Outlook for 2014 and 2015. worldsteel forecasts that global apparent steel use will increase by 2.0% to 1,562 Mt in 2014 following growth of 3.8% in 2013. In 2015, it is forecast that world steel demand will grow by another 2.0% and will reach 1,594 Mt.

Chairman of worldsteel Economics Committee, Hans Jürgen Kerkhoff said: „The positive momentum in global steel demand seen in the second half of 2013 abated in 2014 with weaker than expected performance in the emerging and developing economies. As a consequence we are issuing a lower steel demand growth figure than our forecast released in April this year. The slowdown in China’s steel demand reflecting the structural transformation of the economy has contributed significantly to our lower global growth projection. We have also seen major slowdown in South America and the CIS countries due to falling commodity prices, structural constraints and geopolitical tensions.

„In contrast, the developed economies fared well this year. Recoveries in the EU, United States and Japan are expected to be stronger than previously thought, but not strong enough to offset the slowdown in the emerging economies. In 2015 we expect steel demand growth in developed economies to moderate, while we project growth in the emerging and developing economies to pick up. In China rebalancing will continue to act as a drag on steel demand.

„This outlook is prone to risks coming from various fronts. The US interest rates increase expected in 2015 is likely to impact global capital flows creating instability in the vulnerable emerging markets. At the same time the outlook in emerging markets is constrained both by the need for structural reforms and geo-political tensions and as a result energy prices, globally, have emerged as a new risk factor. In China, the rebalancing and transition towards a consumption driven economy is not without challenges and uncertainties. Lastly, the recovery in the Euro-Area is still constrained by household and government deleveraging.“

Source:  World Steel Association (worldsteel)