Genoa, Italy — Talking with some analysts involved in the energies market, it seems that the crude oil is now starting a new deal. After the lowest 45 $ of January, the Brent barrel is now quoted near 70 $ and, according to the analysts’ feeling, the next target could be 80 $ after the summer, with a possible return during the winter (may be) up to 100 $. It means that a better worldwide demand (marginal) and the lower oil mining (prevalent), also due to the OPEC policy, are achieving the result of a more expensive barrel for the end-users in the nearest future, but also more profitability for the producers.
Usually the barrel influences the steel market; higher barrel price means higher steel prices or vice versa. The last increased prices of the iron ore (even if still not significant) are going in the same direction. It will be interesting to monitor the iron ore price in the next months, to clearly understand if the steel prices will grow further, starting a new positive trend. Obviously the other metallic raw materials will follow the same trend.
A fast simple April run in Italy with the two trends already seen in the past. The first half was characterized by the price increases around 10/15 € on the domestic market and around 15 € on the contracts settled with the usual other European suppliers. The second half passed on with only some small reductions on the highest peaks on the domestic weekly market. The mills inventories are now better than at the beginning of April, also due to the increased arrivals of metallic raw materials to the port and the mills. The arrivals at the Italian ports have been abt 50 Kt for scrap, abt 115 Kt for pig iron and abt 95 Kt for HBI. A couple of other HBI vessels are reaching the Italian ports in these first days of May. Always out of the market are Stefana, Lucchini Piombino and Ilva Taranto. Some better prices are reported for the billets, profiles and beams.
Following the April official average prices reported (€/pmt delivered):
New arising E8:
Demolition scrap E3:
May prices are expected on the same level of the previous month, even if some small adjustments are possible on the highest and lowest level. The less available working days in several European countries during May will reduce the volume of the deliveries. Also the foreseen strike of the German railway will influence the arrivals in Italy.
No new info about Ilva are available. It means that all the new milestones foreseen by the Government and the Public Commissioners are postponed.
Pig Iron – H.B.I.
After March pig iron low arrivals, the quantities received in April are on the highest monthly average, all of them arriving from the Black Sea ports. The last pig iron offers are quoted around $ 285 pmt CIF, for May/June shipments, even if some lower price „indications“ are always on the market. Three HBI vessels from Russia arrived in April. HBI offers are reported around Usd 240/245 pmt CIF Italy, both from Venezuela, Russia and Libya.
Source: Alocci Rappresentanze Industriali